While economic theory highlights the usefulness of flexible exchange rates in promoting adjustment in international relative prices, flexible exchange rates also can be a source of destabilizing shocks. We find that when countries joining the euro currency union abandoned their national exchange...

In this paper I focus on two specific hazard areas in the transition from Stage Two to Stage Three of European economic and monetary union (EMU), as well as on some key problems of Stage Three that EMU's monetary and fiscal structures appear ill-prepared to handle. The transitional hazards are...

How will countries handle idiosyncratic national macroeconomic shocks under the European single currency? The ways in which European countries now react to internally asymmetric shocks provide a better forecast than do the regional response pattern of the United States. In this paper we compare...

We analyze the role of labor mobility in cushioning labor demand shocks in the Euro Area. We find that foreign born workers' mobility is strongly cyclical, while this is not the case for natives. Foreigners' higher population to employment elasticity reduces the variation of overall employment...

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates more vigorously in the recent recession than the European Central Bank did. By comparison with the Fed, the ECB followed a more measured course of action. We use an estimated dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to show that...

We develop an estimator for latent factors in a large-dimensional panel of financial data that can explain expected excess returns. Statistical factor analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has problems identifying factors with a small variance that are important for asset pricing....

Models of voting, including the canonical rational voter model, predict that voters are more likely to turn out when they anticipate a closer election. Yet, evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout is limited. We exploit naturally occurring variation in the...

Studies find price increases for additions to the S&P 500 index but no decreases for deletions. Additions come with good earnings news, suggesting these studies are not just measuring an indexing effect. We develop a regression discontinuity design using Russell Indices for cleaner...

This paper presents an analysis of the sustainability of current account deficits in transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe. These countries have experienced large current account imbalances in the transition to a market economy. We consider a wide range of macroeconomic factors that...

We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries have experienced a 'miracle' growth during the 2000s decade. However, several obstacles appeared following the global financial crisis...