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We study the impact of plausibly exogenous global food price shocks on local violence across the African continent. In food-producing areas, higher food prices reduce conflict over the control of territory (what we call "factor conflict") and increase conflict over the appropriation of surplus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455624
well-known "supply-shock" explanation attributes both spikes to large food and energy shocks plus, in the case of 1973 … policy and (b) pointed to the far smaller impacts of more recent oil shocks as evidence against the supply-shock explanation …, and new econometric studies that have accumulated over the past quarter century. We find that the classic supply-shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464085
Corn prices increased sharply in the summer of 2012 due to expected production shortfalls in the United States, which produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical models of county-level corn yields in the Eastern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460001
This paper first considers the impact on world food prices of the changes in restrictions on trade in staple foods during the 2008 world food price crisis. Those changes--reductions in import protection or increases in export restraints--were meant to partially insulate domestic markets from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459131
Using a sample of 32 developed and developing countries we analyze the empirical characteristics of sudden stops in capital flows and the relevance of balance sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. We find that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations coming hand in hand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468173
At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, the flight to safety was accompanied by a rapid appreciation of "safe haven" currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet effects for total external positions as well as for individual asset classes using new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629497
What are the effects of a temporary lockdown of the economy? Do firms' deteriorating balance sheets and labor market frictions propagate and prolong the effects? We answer these questions in a model with financial and labor market frictions. The model makes quantitative predictions about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510582
Farmers have higher rates of disability and illness than the general population and more volatile incomes due to frequent crop and livestock losses from extreme weather events. This raises concerns that sudden, weather-related drops in farm income could reduce access to health care for an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013190992
's response to an aggregate shock in a way that can be captured by a consumption weighted average of the changes in uncertainty … generated by the shock. We apply this framework to two example economies --an endowment economy and a New Keynesian economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814479
produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which the UK electorate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479869