Showing 1 - 8 of 8
Motivated by the historically tense geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia, we simulate the potential closure of key maritime waterways in the region to predict the impact on trade and welfare. We generate initial (unobstructed) and counterfactual (rerouted) least-cost maritime paths between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482267
We assess the role of economic and security considerations in the currency composition of international reserves. We contrast the "Mercury hypothesis" that currency choice is governed by pecuniary factors familiar to the literature, such as economic size and credibility of major reserve currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453568
After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576667
Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post the 2008-09 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250133
We identify negative spillovers exerted by large, successful manufacturing plants on other local production facilities in China. A short-lived alliance between the U.S.S.R. and China led to the construction of 150 "Million-Rouble plants" in the 1950s. Our identification strategy exploits the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477236
This paper quantifies the positive and normative impact of Bretton Woods capital controls on global and regional economic activity. A three-region DSGE capital flows accounting framework consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) is developed to quantify capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337829
We present a dynamic two-country model in which military spending, geopolitical risk, and government bond prices are jointly determined. The model is consistent with three empirical facts: hegemons have a funding advantage, this advantage rises with geopolitical tensions, and war losers suffer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056136
We analyze the effect of a major central bank digital currency (CBDC) - the digital euro - on the payment industry to find remarkably heterogeneous effects. Stock prices of U.S. payment firms decrease, while stock prices of European payment firms increase in response to positive announcements on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056184