Survey non-response has risen in recent years which has increased the share of imputed and underreported values found on commonly used datasets. While this trend has been well-documented for earnings, the growth in non-response to government transfers questions has received far less attention....

Smoking and obesity are the two leading causes of preventable deaths in the United States. Because smoking is subject to heavy government intervention, understanding the effect of smoking on obesity is important in determining the extent of unintended costs or benefits of such intervention. The...

In this paper we derive the standard error of a price index when both prices and tastes or technology are treated as stochastic. Changing tastes or technology are a reason for the weights in the price index to be treated as stochastic, which can interact with the stochastic prices themselves. We...

We propose point forecast accuracy measures based directly on distance of the forecast-error c.d.f. from the unit step function at 0 ("stochastic error distance," or SED). We provide a precise characterization of the relationship between SED and standard predictive loss functions, and we show...

In this paper I analyze the relationships among investment, q, and cash flow in a tractable stochastic model in which marginal q and average q are identically equal. After analyzing the impact of changes in the distribution of the marginal operating profit of capital, I extend the model to...

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties - particularly as regards serial correlation - differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side...

To what extent does "false science" impact the rate and direction of scientific change? We examine the impact of more than 1,100 scientific retractions on the citation trajectories of articles that are related to retracted papers in intellectual space but were published prior to the retraction...

Test-based accountability including value-added assessments and experimental and quasi-experimental research in education rely on achievement tests to measure student skills and knowledge. Yet we know little regarding important properties of these tests, an important example being the extent of...