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Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows
Broner, Fernando - 2020
debt inflows in six emerging countries that are due to the announcements of these countries' inclusion in two major local …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481075
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Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization
Eusepi, Stefano - 2007
This paper analyzes the value of communication in the implementation of monetary policy. The central bank is uncertain about the current state of the economy. Households and firms are uncertain about the statistical properties of aggregate variables, including nominal interest rates, and must...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465393
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The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement
Urich, Thomas - 1983
This paper examines the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement in the late 1970s. The data used are from a weekly telephone survey of money market participants. The rationality and structure of expectations are explored with the data organized in three ways:the mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478012
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Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution : Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models
Aguiar, Mark A. - 2018
We establish that creditor beliefs regarding future borrowing can be self-fulfilling, leading to multiple equilibria with markedly different debt accumulation patterns. We characterize such indeterminacy in the Eaton-Gersovitz sovereign debt model augmented with long maturity bonds. Two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453037
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Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions
van Dijk, Dick - 2014
This paper considers the uncertainty associated with upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements and … the extent to which the market begins to set up for such announcements well before they actually occur. We demonstrate … signals. We consider the relative importance of both macro announcements and central bank officials' speeches and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458849
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Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 1999
We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that (i) technical trading best characterizes about 30% of traders, with this proportion rising from five years ago; (ii) news about macroeconomic variables is rapidly incorporated into exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471364
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Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations
Froot, Kenneth A. - 1986
Survey data on exchange rate expectations are used to divide the forward discount into expected depreciation and a risk premium. Our starting point is the common test oh whether the forward discount is an unbiased predictor of future changes in the spot rate. We use the surveys to decompose the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477109
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Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1985
Survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations that is superior to the commonly-used forward exchange rate in the respect that it does notinclude a risk premium. We use survey data and the technique of bootstrapping to test a number of propositions of interest. We are able to reject...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477408
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Floating Exchange Rates, Expectations and New Information
Edwards, Sebastian - 1983
This paper analyzes the relationship between forward exchange rates,future spot rates and new information. A stochastic … "news") affect the spot rate. The empirical analysis indicates that "new information" plays an important role in explaining …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478039
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Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials : A Test ofthe Fisher Hypothesis
Cumby, Robert E. - 1980
This note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the exchange rate over the holding period. This proposition, often called the "Fisher open" hypothesis or the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478598