evaluate the potential effect of their trading on stock prices. We address two aspects of trading by money managers: herding … of substantial herding or positive-feedback trading by pension fund managers, except in small stocks. Also, there is no …

We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with …'s price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security …, suggesting that war raises oil prices by around $10 per barrel. Futures prices imply that markets expect these large immediate …

rare. Our methodology avoids look-ahead bias and addresses semantic shifts. War discourse positively predicts market …-grade corporate bonds. The predictive power of war discourse increases in more recent time periods …

This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …