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in our model are caused by declines in expected returns, increases in expected profitability, or increases in prior … uncertainty about average profitability. The model predicts that IPO waves are preceded by high market returns, followed by low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468839
We develop a model of banking crises which Is consistent with two important features of the data: First, banking crises are usually preceded by credit booms. Second, credit booms often do not result in a crisis. That is, there are "good" booms as well as "bad" booms in the language of Gorton and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481336
We study a dynamic model in which the interaction between debt accumulation and asset prices magnifies credit booms and busts. We find that borrowers do not internalize these feedback effects and therefore suffer from excessively large booms and busts in both credit flows and asset prices. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462279
The link between monetary policy and asset price movements has been of perennial interest to policy makers. In this paper we consider the potential case for pre-emptive monetary restrictions when asset price reversals can have serious effects on real output. First, we provide some historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469748
Emerging economies, particularly those dependent on commodity exports, are prone to highly disruptive economic cycles. This paper proposes a small open economy model for a net commodity exporter to quantitatively study the triggers of these cycles. The economy consists of two sectors, one of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453995
We propose a model of money, credit and bubbles, and use it to study the role of monetary policy in managing asset … bubbles. In this model, bubbles pop up and burst, generating fluctuations in credit, investment and output. Two key insights … emerge from the analysis. First, the growth rate of bubbles, which is driven by agents' expectations, can be set in real or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456041
In the 1929-1933 downturn of the Great Depression, house values and homeownership rates fell more, and mortgage foreclosure rates were higher, in cities that had experienced relatively high rates of house construction in the residential real-estate boom of the mid-1920s. Across the 1920s, boom...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459809
In this paper, we decompose oil price changes into their component parts following Kilian (2009) and estimate the dynamic effects of each component on industry-level production and prices in the U.S. and Japan using identified VAR models. The way oil price changes affect each industry depends on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462859
Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457787
This paper examines the economic environments in which past U.S. stock market booms occurred as a first step toward understanding how asset price booms come about and whether monetary policy should be used to defuse booms. We identify several episodes of sustained rapid rise in equity prices in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467986