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Fiscal Histories
Cochrane, John H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of … determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use … fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361983
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Real Effects of Stabilizing Private Money Creation
Xu, Chenzi; Yang, He - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We show that decentralized privately created money with unstable values can hinder the traded, more transaction-friction sensitive, sector of the economy. We do so in the context of the NationalBanking Act of 1864 in the United States that created a new federally-regulated, fully-backed currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210088
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International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance
Bianchi, Javier; Sosa Padilla, César - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper investigates the implications of international financial sanctions for the reserve currency status of the US dollar. We propose a simple model of a reserve currency, demonstrate how the anticipation of financial sanctions can weaken the dollar's status, and evaluate the welfare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247945
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Discount Factors and Monetary Policy : Evidence from Dual-Listed Stocks
Vandeweyer, Quentin; Yang, Minghao; Yannelis, Constantine - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to the stock market through investors' discount factors. To isolate this channel, we investigate the effect of US monetary policy surprises on the ratio of prices of the same stock listed simultaneously in Hong Kong and Mainland China, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544777
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Money Matters : Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession
Bordo, Michael D.; Duca, John V. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth … seeks to restore low inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322692
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A Major Shock Makes Prices More Flexible and May Result in a Burst of Inflation or Deflation
Hall, Robert Ernest - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by … declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and … productivity--inflation can jump upward and fall downward at high speed, contrary to the uniformly sticky behavior associated with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247946
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Fiscal Consequences of Central Bank Losses
Cecchetti, Stephen G.; Hilscher, Jens - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
In response to the Global Financial Crisis, central banks engaged in large-scale asset purchases funded by the issuance of reserves. These "unconventional" policies continued during the pandemic, so that by 2022 central banks' balance sheets had grown up to ten-fold. As a result of rapidly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544756
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A Model of the Gold Standard
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Sanches, Daniel - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
The gold standard emerged as the international monetary system by the end of the 19th century. We formally study its properties in a micro-founded model and find that the scarcity of the world gold stock not only results in a suboptimal output of goods that are purchased with money but also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388813
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Central Bank Digital Currencies, an Old Tale With a New Chapter
Bordo, Michael D.; Roberds, William - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Drawing on examples from monetary history, we argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic credibility. A paradoxical feature of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477201
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How Abundant Are Reserves? Evidence from the Wholesale Payment System
Afonso, Gara; Duffie, Darrell; Rigon, Lorenzo; Shin, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477228