This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia's demographic and fiscal transition … under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and … Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed …

) by the Nazis during World War II and long-run economic and political outcomes within Russia. Cities that experienced the … it induced in the social structure, in particular the size of the middle class, across different regions of Russia …

oil-price shock and the 9/11 terrorist attack. This paper offers a structural framework to analyze the impact of these … data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound … medium term the increased volatility from the shock induces an overshoot in output, employment and productivity. Thus, second …

first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994 …

adjustment depend on the source of the original shock, In the case of fiscal expansion, postponement implies a larger eventual …