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The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences … provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model … global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482447
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point …, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we … enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477224
Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456494
We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322749
economies, are false or need serious amendment in a world with international trade in goods. Since the three results we … a re-examination may be in order. Specifically, we demonstrate that in an open trading world, but not in a closed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471110
This paper shows that greater global spatial correlation of productivities can increase cross-country welfare dispersion by increasing the correlation between a country's productivity and its gains from trade. We causally validate this prediction using a global climatic phenomenon as a natural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479403
world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480113
Empirical analyses of climatic event impacts on growth, while critical for policy, have been slow to be incorporated into macroeconomic climate-economy models. This paper proposes a joint empirical-structural approach to bridge this gap for tropical cyclones. First, we review competing empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480548
I formally relate the consequences of climate change to the time series variation in weather extensively explored by recent empirical literature. I show that reduced-form fixed effects estimators can recover the effects of climate if agents are myopic, if agents' payoff functions belong to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480661
Climate change effects on agricultural yields will be uneven over the world with a few countries, mostly in high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480872