We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …

for size correction. -- Cointegration ; weak exogeneity ; bootstrap test ; Subset VECM …

An introduction to vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis is given with special emphasis on cointegration. The models … decompositions are presented as tools for analyzing VAR models. -- Cointegration ; forecasting ; dynamic econometric models ; impulse …

is constructed for the German monetary sector based on M3, GNP, an inflation rate, a long-term interest rate and a short …-term rate which represents the policy variable of the DBB. Moreover, import price inflation is included as an exogenous variable … rate and shows the interaction of the main variables of the monetary sector. -- Cointegration analysis ; impulse response …

The concept of integrated stochastic processes is widely used in empirical macroeconomics; and cointegration analysis … considerable empirical method for extracting information from monetary aggregates for monetary policy purposes. -- cointegration …

cointegration tests that do not accommodate level shifts. I consider two groups of Likelihood Ratio tests based on procedures … rank smaller than one suggested by procedures which accommodate the shifts. -- Systems cointegration tests ; Level shifts …

following the classical approach based on I(0) stationarity or I(1) cointegrating relationships, we use fractional integration/cointegration … three variables are I(1). But we only find cointegration in the presence of autocorrelated disturbances, which means that … opposed to classical cointegration, which implies long memory and slow reversion to equilibrium. This suggests that an …

the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Monte Carlo simulations … (EMH) ; Present Value (PV) models ; fractional cointegration …