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In this paper we use the functional vector autoregression (VAR) framework of Chang, Chen, and Schorfheide (2024) to study the effects of monetary policy shocks (conventional and informational) on the cross-sectional distribution of U.S. earnings (from the Current Population Survey), consumption,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486257
Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461237
We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking … measures of arginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap …. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471224
for the unemployment-inflation tradeoff and for the conduct of monetary policy.<br><br>We proceed in two steps. We first … setting by firms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discuss how it is influenced by the presence … of labor market frictions and real wage rigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464750
for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465282
perspective on the linkages among monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle. It is argued that the adoption of an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469948
as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze … the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two … is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470506
We resuscitated the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) developed in Schorfheide and Song (2015, JBES) to generate macroeconomic forecasts for the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic in real time. The model combines eleven time series observed at two frequencies: quarterly and monthly....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794563
for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950792
with a modest and protracted decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008Q4. The model does so even … though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212816