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VARs are often estimated with Bayesian techniques to cope with model dimensionality. The posterior means define a class of shrinkage estimators, indexed by hyperparameters that determine the relative weight on maximum likelihood estimates and prior means. In a Bayesian setting, it is natural to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326468
In this paper we use the functional vector autoregression (VAR) framework of Chang, Chen, and Schorfheide (2024) to study the effects of monetary policy shocks (conventional and informational) on the cross-sectional distribution of U.S. earnings (from the Current Population Survey), consumption,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486257
for the unemployment-inflation tradeoff and for the conduct of monetary policy.<br><br>We proceed in two steps. We first … setting by firms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discuss how it is influenced by the presence … of labor market frictions and real wage rigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464750
perspective on the linkages among monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle. It is argued that the adoption of an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469948
We resuscitated the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) developed in Schorfheide and Song (2015, JBES) to generate macroeconomic forecasts for the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic in real time. The model combines eleven time series observed at two frequencies: quarterly and monthly....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794563
with a modest and protracted decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008Q4. The model does so even … though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212816
for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950792
We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation of macro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084740
as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze … the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two … is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005575147
We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking … measures of arginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap …. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005579953