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We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
other. In the standard model, inflation and output rise after interest rates rise, with only the possibility of a one …-time downward jump. With the generalized Lucas Phillips curve, inflation is initially unstable, so a small initial disinflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015421838
inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544805
We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified stationary vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544773
How costly is inflation to workers? Answers to this question have focused on the path of real wages during inflationary … periods. We argue that workers must take costly actions ("conflict") to have nominal wages catch up with inflation, meaning … there are welfare costs even if real wages do not fall as inflation rises. We study a menu-cost style model, where workers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072897
A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between outcomes, controls and the intervention. Many of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056147
fraction of price changes increases with inflation. They also predict implausibly large menu costs and misallocation in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468294
We study the propagation of nominal shocks in a dispersed information economy where firms learn from and respond to information generated by their activities in product and factor markets. We prove the existence of a "Hayekian benchmark", defined by conditions under which imperfect information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145165
This paper explores alternative methods for adjusting price indices for quality change at scale. These methods can be applied to large-scale item-level transactions data that includes information on prices, quantities, and item attributes. The hedonic methods can take into account the changing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322697
We show that if the central bank operates without commitment and faces constraints on its balance sheet, helicopter drops can be a useful stabilization tool during a liquidity trap. With commitment, even with balance sheet constraints, helicopter drops are irrelevant
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247967