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inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three … decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation following surges tends to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation … exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435117
The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801
curve can account for inflation not just in the U.S. but across a range of countries, once household or firm-level inflation … expectations are used. Given this relationship, we can infer the dynamics of slack from the dynamics of inflation gaps and vice … versa. We find that the implied slack was pushing inflation below expectations in the years after the Great Recession but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479467
Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480439
This paper examines what strategies policymakers have used to both reduce and control inflation. It first outlines why … a consensus has emerged that inflation needs to be controlled. Then it examines four basic strategies: exchange rate … pegging, monetary targeting, inflation targeting, and the just do it' strategy of preemptive monetary policy with no explicit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472421
We develop a method to identify the individual latent propensity to select into treatment and marginal treatment effects. Identification is achieved with survey data on individuals' subjective expectations of their treatment propensity and of their treatment-contingent outcomes. We use the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528349
countries with low inflation, the raw relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best … elasticities implied by theories of Baumol-Tobin and Miller-Orr. Finally, the sample after 1990 shows considerably less inflation … variability, worsening the fit of a one-for-one relationship between money growth and inflation, and generates a fairly low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462263
actions are explained solely by its forecasts of inflation and real activity. Finally, we explore the possibility of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470341
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003162402