This paper studies a growth model that is able to match several key facts of economic history. For thousands of years, the average standard of living seems to have risen very little, despite increases in the level of technology and large increases in the level of the population. Then, after...

Transformative technologies like generative artificial intelligence promise to accelerate productivity growth across many sectors, but they also present new risks from potential misuse. We develop a multi-sector technology adoption model to study the optimal regulation of transformative...

This paper studies China's four-fold increase in per capita GDP relative to the U.S. between 1995 and 2019. First, we argue that China's growth pattern is very similar to that of several other East Asia economies that initially grew very quickly. Second, we show that a minimalist...

We augment Henderson, Storeygard, and Weil (2012)'s two-signal model of true income growth with a third signal to overcome its underidentification problem. The additional moment conditions from the third signal help fully identify all model parameters without ad-hoc calibrations of the GDP's...

This paper asks whether increasing productivity in the electricity sector can yield larger long-run GDP gains than suggested by electricity's small share of aggregate economic activity. We answer this question using a dynamic multi-sector model in which electricity is a strong complement to...

A unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modern industrial economies. Our theory also explains the industrial revolution, which is the transition...

This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita....

Technology change is modeled as the result of decisions of individuals and groups of individuals to adopt more advanced technologies. The structure is calibrated to the U.S. and postwar Japan growth experiences. Using this calibrated structure we explore how large the disparity in the effective...

This paper uses data for nineteen industrial countries over the period 1960-1985 to examine the evidence for international convergence of technical progress. Several models of convergence, including a model in which convergence is affected by changes in a country's openness to trade, are...

Technological advance is often embodied in capital inputs. This paper develops a model where capital innovations occur on two margins: (1) vertically, where a capital input becomes more productive at a given task; and (2) horizontally, where a capital input replaces labor at a given task. These...