A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …

, consistent with the evidence, increases with inflation. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many … inflation accelerator--a feedback loop between inflation and the fraction of price changes--which significantly increases the … slope of the Phillips curve during periods of high inflation. Applied to the U.S. time series, our model predicts that the …

explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the … that the combination of runaway inflation, shortages, and black markets generated major disaffection among the middle class …

We measure the heterogeneous welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the Euro Area. A simple … framework illustrating the numerous channels of the transmission mechanism of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our …; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the elderly losing up to 20%, and roughly half of the 25 …

We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision … experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are … concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are …

We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce … the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation … through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with …

short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of … product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and nominal wages and to quantify the sources of U.S. pandemic-era inflation … and wage growth. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets …

marginal costs and inflation. As workers climb the job ladder, reducing slack in the employment pool, the inflation effect …, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment …, a measure of the "Acceptance rate" of job offers to employed workers, predicts negatively inflation, independently of …