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summarised as follows. (1) Historically, inflation persistence appears to have been the exception, rather than the rule, with … inflation estimated to have been highly persistent only during the period between the floating of the pound, in June 1972, and … the introduction of inflation targeting, in October 1992. Under inflation targeting, it exhibits some slight negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005343033
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706823
Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to gauge their contribution to short-run investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969200
Economic growth involves metamorphosis of the financial system. Forms of banks and bank money change. These changes, if not addressed, leave the banking system vulnerable to crisis. There is no greater challenge in economics than to understand and prevent financial crises. The financial crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950636
inflation persistence; a smaller volatility of reduced-form innovations to both inflation and real GDP growth; and a … under indeterminacy is a mirror image of what it is under determinacy: both inflation persistence and the volatility of its … reduced-form innovations, for example, are increasing in the coefficient on inflation under indeterminacy, decreasing under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345250
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What fraction of the business cycle volatility of government purchases is accounted for as endogenous reactions to overall macroeconomic conditions? We answer this question in the framework of a neoclassical representative household model where the provision of a public consumption good is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009223328
What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. In contrast, their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008628459
The sensitivity of U.S. aggregate investment to shocks is procyclical: the initial response increases by approximately 50% from the trough to the peak of the business cycle. This feature of the data follows naturally from a DSGE model with lumpy microeconomic capital adjustment. Beyond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710232
Disturbances affecting agents intertemporal substitution are the key driving force of macroeconomic fluctuations. We reach this conclusion exploiting the bond pricing implications of an estimated general equilibrium model of the U.S. business cycle with a rich set of real and nominal frictions.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710878