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An inflation expectations horserace
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey … models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647457
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What Drives Aggregate Investment?
Bachmann, Rüdiger; Zorn, Peter - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to gauge their contribution to short-run investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969200
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Some Reflections on the Recent Financial Crisis
Gorton, Gary - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
Economic growth involves metamorphosis of the financial system. Forms of banks and bank money change. These changes, if not addressed, leave the banking system vulnerable to crisis. There is no greater challenge in economics than to understand and prevent financial crises. The financial crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950636
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Information money fields of cyclic oscillations in nonlinear dynamic economic system
Ledenyov, Dimitri O.; Ledenyov, Viktor O. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015
Article introduces the notion of information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system for the first time, and presents an original research on the Ledenyov theory on the information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011251895
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Information money fields of cyclic oscillations in nonlinear dynamic economic system
Ledenyov, Dimitri O.; Ledenyov, Viktor O. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015
Article introduces the notion of information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the economic variables in the nonlinear dynamic economic system for the first time, and presents an original research on the Ledenyov theory on the information money fields of the cyclic oscillations of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011251900
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Is Chad affected by Dutch or Nigerian disease?
Kablan, Sandrine; Loening, Josef - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012
We examine the effects of the ‘natural resource curse’ on Chad and find little evidence for Dutch disease. Structural vector auto-regression suggests that changes in domestic output and prices are overwhelmingly determined by aggregate demand and supply shocks, and while oil production and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259421
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European Union Economy System Dynamic Model Development
Skribans, Valerijs - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012
The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259562
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Modelo de Ciclos Reales para Colombia
Sarmiento, Prada; David, Juan - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2005
Colombian economy has the typical small-open economy cycle: smooth consumption, higher volatility in investment ; procyclical consumption, investment and imports; countercyclical trade balance. The objective of this paper is to identify the stylized facts and to replicate them quantitative and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005079306
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Public Consumption Over the Business Cycle
Bachmann, Ruediger; Bai, Jinhui - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
What fraction of the business cycle volatility of government purchases is accounted for as endogenous reactions to overall macroeconomic conditions? We answer this question in the framework of a neoclassical representative household model where the provision of a public consumption good is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009223328
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Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data
Bachmann, Ruediger; Elstner, Steffen; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. In contrast, their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008628459