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Bachmann, Rüdiger; Zorn, Peter - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to gauge their contribution to short-run investment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969200

Some Reflections on the Recent Financial Crisis

Gorton, Gary - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012

Economic growth involves metamorphosis of the financial system. Forms of banks and bank money change. These changes, if not addressed, leave the banking system vulnerable to crisis. There is no greater challenge in economics than to understand and prevent financial crises. The financial crisis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950636

Public Consumption Over the Business Cycle

Bachmann, Ruediger; Bai, Jinhui - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

What fraction of the business cycle volatility of government purchases is accounted for as endogenous reactions to overall macroeconomic conditions? We answer this question in the framework of a neoclassical representative household model where the provision of a public consumption good is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009223328

Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data

Bachmann, Ruediger; Elstner, Steffen; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010

What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. In contrast, their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008628459

Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model

Caballero, Ricardo J; Engel, Eduardo M.R.A.; Bachmann, … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2006

The sensitivity of U.S. aggregate investment to shocks is procyclical: the initial response increases by approximately 50% from the trough to the peak of the business cycle. This feature of the data follows naturally from a DSGE model with lumpy microeconomic capital adjustment. Beyond...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710232

Intertemporal Disturbances

Primiceri, Giorgio; Tambalotti, Andrea; Schaumburg, Ernst - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2006

Disturbances affecting agents intertemporal substitution are the key driving force of macroeconomic fluctuations. We reach this conclusion exploiting the bond pricing implications of an estimated general equilibrium model of the U.S. business cycle with a rich set of real and nominal frictions.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710878

Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle

Ghosh, Atish; Wolf, Holger C. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1997

We examine whether the aggregate U.S. business cycle is driven mainly by geographical" shocks (affecting all sectors within a state), or by sectoral shocks (affecting the same sector in all" states). We find that, at the level of an individual sector in an individual state growth are driven by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829318

What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

Miron, Jeffrey A; Beaulieu, J. Joseph - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1995

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829624

News Shocks

Barsky, Robert B.; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

innovations, and negatively correlated with inflation innovations. The disinflationary nature of news shocks is consistent with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005027105

The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion of the 1990s

Zarnowitz, Victor - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2000

two previous long economic expansions, using 31 variables on real activity, inflation, productivity, wages, profits …. Inflation was decreasing or stable, a fact which is new for the post-World War II period (but not for the longer historical … interest rates reflected mostly reductions in inflation and the national debt. Profit margins increased strongly. Still, there …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005580406

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