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will be overstated, and the bias can be large (about 25 percent). Second, we argue that, according to finance theory, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720363
measurement for financial firms, such as: (1) What are the correct "reference rates" to use in calculating bank output? In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005778352
, much of bank output has to be estimated indirectly. In contrast to current statistical practice, dynamic optimizing models … of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find … that between 1997 and 2007, in the U.S. National Accounts, on average, bank output is overestimated by 21 percent and GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005580428
bank debt holders. The current crisis raises issues for crisis theory. And, empirically, studying crises is challenging …Economic growth involves metamorphosis of the financial system. Forms of banks and bank money change. These changes, if … of crises. All financial crises are at root bank runs, because bank debt--of all forms--is vulnerable to sudden exit by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950636
We document that the percentage of all U.S. assets that are "safe" has remained stable at about 33 percent since 1952. This stable ratio is a rare example of calm in a rapidly changing financial world. Over the same time period, the ratio of U.S. assets to GDP has increased by a factor of 2.5,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421965
A firm's termination generates bankruptcy costs. This may create incentives for a firm's owner to bail out a firm in bankruptcy and to curb the firm's risk taking outside bankruptcy. We analyze the role of such implicit guarantees in the context of financial institutions that sponsor money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009251486
The potential for rare macroeconomic disasters may explain an array of asset-pricing puzzles. Our empirical studies of these extreme events rely on long-term data now covering 28 countries for consumption and 40 for GDP. A baseline model calibrated with observed peak-to-trough disaster sizes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009251532
Long-term data for 30 countries up to 2006 reveal 232 stock-market crashes (multi-year real returns of -25% or less) and 100 depressions (multi-year macroeconomic declines of 10% or more), with 71 of the cases matched by timing. The United States has two of the matched events--the Great...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720377
We build on the Maddison GDP data to assemble international time series from before 1914 on real per capita personal consumer expenditure, C. We also improve the GDP data in many cases. The C variable comes closer than GDP to the consumption concept that enters into usual asset-pricing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005830221
Estimating the effect of Federal Reserve's announcements of Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programs on corporate credit risk is complicated by the simultaneity of policy decisions and movements in prices of risky financial assets, as well as by the fact that both interest rates of assets...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969256