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Macroeconomic Adjustment and the History of Crises in Open Economies
Aizenman, Joshua; Noy, Ilan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
experience has a significant impact on savings. When facing considerable political risk, the past does seem to matter - countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969363
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Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone
Martin, Philippe; PHILIPPON, Thomas - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
We provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of eurozone countries from 2000 to 2012. We analyze private leverage, fiscal policy, labor costs and interest rates and we propose a strategy to separate the impact of credit cycles, excessive government spending, and sudden stops. We then ask...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951017
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The Supply and Demand for Safe Assets
Gorton, Gary; Ordonez, Guillermo L. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
There is a demand for safe assets, either government bonds or private substitutes, for use as collateral. Government bonds are safe assets, given the government's power to tax, but their supply is driven by fiscal considerations, and does not necessarily meet the private demand for safe assets....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969335
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Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China
Fehr, Hans; Kotlikoff, Laurence; Jokisch, Sabine - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2005
that tax hikes needed to pay benefits along the developed world's demographic transition would lead to capital shortage … countries. If this continues to be the case, the model's long run looks much brighter. China eventually becomes the world …'s saver and, thereby, the developed world's savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084642
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Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
Zha, Tao; Waggoner, Daniel F. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
We estimate a Markov-switching mixture of two familiar macroeconomic models: a richly parameterized DSGE model and a corresponding BVAR model. We show that the Markov-switching mixture model dominates both individual models and improves the fit considerably. Our estimation indicates that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652897
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Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S.
Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kueng, Lorenz; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010553384
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Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
We propose a new approach to test of the null of full-information rational expectations which is informative about whether rejections of the null reflect departures from rationality or full-information. This approach can also quantify the economic significance of departures from the null by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727848
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How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
Boivin, Jean; Mishkin, Frederic; Kiley, Michael T. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
We discuss the evolution in macroeconomic thought on the monetary policy transmission mechanism and present related empirical evidence. The core channels of policy transmission - the neoclassical links between short-term policy interest rates, other asset prices such as long-term interest rates,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008634672
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Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap
Guerrieri, Veronica; Lorenzoni, Guido - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
their precautionary savings. This depresses interest rates, especially in the short run, and generates an output drop, even …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009371812
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Inflation Illusion, Credit, and Asset Pricing
Piazzesi, Monika; Schneider, Martin - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007
This paper considers asset pricing in a general equilibrium model in which some, but not all, agents suffer from inflation illusion. Illusionary investors mistake changes in nominal interest rates for changes in real rates, while smart investors understand the Fisher equation. The presence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718558