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We evaluate some aspects of the finite sample distribution of an instrumental variables estimator of a first order condition of the Holt et al. (1960) linear quadratic inventory model. We find that for some but not all empirically relevant data generating processes and sample sizes, asymptotic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005779068
-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to … gauge their contribution to short-run investment fluctuations. We estimate an upper bound for the contribution of technology … shocks to the variance of the aggregate investment growth rate of 19 percent. The larger part of fluctuations in aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969200
investment; the impact of uncertainty on investment occurs primarily through changes in credit spreads; and innovations in credit … spreads have a strong effect on investment, irrespective of the level of uncertainty. These findings raise a question … financial shocks. By influencing the effective supply of credit, both types of shocks exert a powerful effect on investment and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969332
In the U.S. economy over the past twenty five years, house prices exhibit fluctuations considerably larger than house rents and these large fluctuations tend to move together with business cycles. We build a simple theoretical model to characterize these observations by showing the tight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887110
We use a large project-level dataset to estimate the length of the planning period for commercial construction projects in the United States. We find that these time-to-plan lags are long, averaging about 17 months when we aggregate the projects without regard to size and more than 28 months...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010890095
We present a model of investment hangover motivated by the Great Recession. In our model, overbuilding of residential … economy enters a liquidity trap with limited reallocation and low output. The drop in output reduces nonresidential investment … through a mechanism similar to the acceleration principle of investment. The burst in nonresidential investment is followed by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951130
We develop a dynamic model of trading and investment with limited aggregate resources to study investment cycles …. Unverifiable idiosyncratic investment opportunities imply market prices to play a role of rent distribution, distorting private … investment incentives from a social point of view. This distortion is price-dependent, leading to two-sided inefficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951203
This paper develops a model of investment decisions in which uncertainty about a one-time change in tax policy induces … exploits the tabled projects, generating a temporary investment boom. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951243
The financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession left the U.S. economy in an injured state. In 2013, output was 13 percent below its trend path from 1990 through 2007. Part of this shortfall--2.2 percentage points out of the 13--was the result of lingering slackness in the labor market in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271437
We study a model of lumpy investment wherein establishments face persistent shocks to common and plant …-specific productivity, and nonconvex adjustment costs lead them to pursue generalized (S,s) investment rules. We allow persistent … the first model consistent with available evidence on establishment-level investment rates. Examining the implications of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084625