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Many believe that "big data" will transform business, government and other aspects of the economy. In this article we discuss how new data may impact economic policy and economic research. Large-scale administrative datasets and proprietary private sector data can greatly improve the way we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969342
This chapter provides a selective review of some contemporary approaches to program evaluation. One motivation for our …, we examine some commonly employed evaluation strategies, and assess them with a common set of criteria for "internal … validity", the foremost goal of an ex post evaluation.  In some cases, we also provide some concrete illustrations of how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008627157
This study examines the tax reporting consequences of financial reporting discretion. Using a matched sample of financial statements with tax returns, I provide estimates of the accuracy of tax return information inferred from financial statements. To examine the tradeoffs between financial and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710636
Two recent papers, Deaton (2009), and Heckman and Urzua (2009), argue against what they see as an excessive and inappropriate use of experimental and quasi-experimental methods in empirical work in economics in the last decade. They specifically question the increased use of instrumental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718427
This paper extends the class of stochastic volatility diffusions for asset returns to encompass Poisson jumps of time-varying intensity. We find that any reasonably descriptive continuous-time model for equity-index returns must allow for discrete jumps as well as stochastic volatility with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829900
This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be … model is often inappropriate, since model uncertainty is an important element of policy evaluation. We advocate the use of … model averaging to account for model uncertainty and show how it may be applied to policy evaluation exercises. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005778095
Changes in nominal interest rates must be due to either movements in real interest rates, expected inflation, or the inflation risk premium. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk, and inflation to identify these components of the nominal yield curve....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005088590
This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005580736
This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer's (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008619290
While conducting empirical work, researchers sometimes observe changes in outcomes before adoption of a new treatment program. The conventional diagnosis is that treatment is endogenous. Observing changes in outcomes prior to treatment is also consistent, however, with anticipation effects. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765618