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The European Monetary Union is stuck in a severe balance-of-payments imbalance of a nature similar to the one that destroyed the Bretton Woods System. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy have suffered from balance-of-payments deficits whose accumulated value, as measured by the Target...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009372441
We evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, we first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005050136
In this paper, we quantify the changes in the relationship between international forces and many key US macroeconomic variables over the 1984-2005 period, and analyze changes in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. We do so by estimating a Factor-Augmented VAR on a large set of US and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005050455
current and future inflation innovations to revalue government debt, reducing reliance on distorting taxes; (2) the role of … inflation in optimal fiscal financing increases with the average maturity of government debt; (3) as average maturity rises, it … is optimal to tradeoff inflation for output stabilization; (4) inflation is relatively more important as a fiscal shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010717782
inflation to the forefront of policy concerns. Those concerns will only grow as aging populations increase demands on government …, through which fiscal deficits directly affect inflation. The paper describes various ways in which fiscal policy can directly … affect inflation and explains why these fiscal effects are difficult to detect in time series data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009654186
policies will adjust. Temporarily explosive debt has no effect on inflation if households expect all adjustments to occur … targeting inflation to stabilizing debt, then debt feeds directly into the path of inflation and monetary policy can no longer … control inflation. News that reduces expected primary surpluses can bring future inflation into the present, well before the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839461
appreciable risk of default or higher inflation. But governments in advanced economies issue substantial nominal debt and nominal … devalued through higher current and future inflation rates. The paper develops a simple bond market supply-demand apparatus to … explain how fiscal policy can be a source of inflation, while monetary policy merely determines the timing of inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821921
taxation, modest inflation, and some reneging on the government's promised transfers. In the equilibrium, inflation …-targeting monetary policy cannot successfully anchor expected inflation. Expectational effects are always present, but need not have … large impacts on inflation and interest rates in the short and medium runs. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008601671
We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized empirically accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy during the zero-lower-bound period. Announcing fiscal austerity is detrimental in the short run, but it preserves macroeconomic stability. On the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269066
focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably robust to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005050058