despite substantial volatility of the unemployment rate, and in particular the common tendency of PC inflation equations to … five years but rather in the mid-1970s, when the predicted negative relation between inflation and unemployment turned out … to be utterly wrong. Instead inflation exhibited a strong positive correlation with unemployment. Failure bred success …

. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating … shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 whereas inflation shocks do so only around 1990, suggesting active … monetary policy may have played role in anchoring inflation expectations. Shocks and policy regimes jointly drive the …

U.S. macroeconomic evidence shows a negative relation between the rate of change of wages and unemployment. In contrast …, most theories of wage determination imply a negative relation between the level of wages and unemployment. In this paper … -- from real interest rates to oil prices to payroll taxes -- on the natural rate of unemployment. …

We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call Dynamic … for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights …

The persistence of U.S. unemployment has risen with each of the last three recessions, raising the specter that future … shocks do not systematically lead to more persistent unemployment than monetary policy shocks, so these cannot explain the … rising persistence of unemployment. Second, monetary and fiscal policies can account for only part of the evolving …

, and price and wage rigidities. Regulation affects producer entry costs, employment protection, and unemployment benefits …

recovered but unemployment lingered). This paper presents a model that captures these three facts. The key elements of the model …

shortening the duration of the crisis and a binding zero bound. Inflation should be front loaded. Fiscal-policy multipliers can …