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We develop a flexible semiparametric time series estimator that is then used to assess the causal effect of monetary policy interventions on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macro-dynamic setting, without the need...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969232
an inflation target of 3-4%. Yet, since U.S. interest rates hit zero in 2008, the Fed under Chairman Bernanke has taken …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652788
inflation and output in the United States. The shift occurred in the early 1980s. We then derive an equation that links these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005774435
Theoretical advances in macroeconomics made in the last three decades have had a major influence on macroeconomic policy analysis. Moreover, over the last several decades, the United States and other countries have undertaken a variety of policy changes that are precisely what macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005089123
and the inflation rate without error, then it is typically optimal to respond infinitely strongly to observed deviations … from the central bank's targets. If it observes inflation and the output gap with error, the central bank will temper its … terms of estimated output and inflation then it is optimal to respond infinitely strongly to estimated deviations from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951201
interest on reserves. While their effects on output and inflation are small, these policies require major adjustments in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011262796
If inflation expectations become firmly anchored at the inflation target even when average inflation deviates from the … target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes non-vertical. During 1997-2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have … been close to the inflation target of 2 percent, whereas average inflation has fallen short of the target by 0.6 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011234893
. Specifically, we estimate a series of simple models to measure the impact of inflation targeting on the dispersion of private … sector forecasts of inflation. Using a panel data set that includes 15 countries over 20 years we find no convincing evidence … that adopting an inflation targeting regime leads to a reduction in the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008631102
This paper characterizes the properties of various interest-rate rules in a basic forward-looking model. We compare simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations (called Wicksellian rules). We argue that by introducing an appropriate amount of history dependence in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008635937
In this paper, we review Otmar Issing's career as the ECB's inaugural chief economist and we document many notable successes. We try to infer some general principles that contributed to these successes and draw some lessons. In doing so, we review the evidence using Woodford%u2019s (2003) recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710386