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Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators

Estrella, Arturo; Mishkin, Frederic - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1995

This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of subsequent U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated singly and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005575412

Macroeconomic Regimes

Bekaert, Geert; Cho, Seonghoon; Moreno, Antonio; Baele, … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating monetary policy before 1980, with activist monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009025241

Spatial Errors in Count Data Regressions

Moser, Petra; Bertanha, Marinho - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

Count data regressions are an important tool for empirical analyses ranging from analyses of patent counts to measures of health and unemployment. Along with negative binomial, Poisson panel regressions are a preferred method of analysis because the Poisson conditional fixed effects maximum...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887106

Growth, Reform Indicators and Policy Complementaries

Braga de Macedo, Jorge A.; Oliveira Martins, Joaquim - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2006

This paper discusses the design of structural policies by relating second-best results and the complementarity of reforms. It computes a complementarity index based on structural reform indicators compiled by the EBRD for transition countries, assuming that the run-up to EU integration...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084690

Dynamic Cost-offsets of Prescription Drug Expenditures: Panel Data Analysis Using a Copula-based Hurdle Model

Deb, Partha; Trivedi, Pravin K.; Zimmer, David M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

This paper presents a new multivariate copula-based modeling approach for analyzing cost-offsets between drug and nondrug expenditures. Estimates are based on panel data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) with quarterly measures of medical expenditures. The approach allows for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087448

Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships

Rigobon, Roberto; Rodrik, Dani - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2004

law are both good for economic performance, but the latter has a much stronger impact on incomes. Openness (trade/GDP) has …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005019415

"Healthy, Wealthy and Wise?" Revisited: An Analysis of the Causal Pathways from Socio-economic Status to Health

Winter, Joachim; Stowasser, Till; Heiss, Florian; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

confounding influence of hidden common factors is not fully controlled. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009226774

Using Genetic Lotteries within Families to Examine the Causal Impact of Poor Health on Academic Achievement

Lehrer, Steven; Fletcher, Jason M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

While there is a well-established, large positive correlation between mental and physical health and education outcomes, establishing a causal link remains a substantial challenge. Building on findings from the biomedical literature, we exploit specific differences in the genetic code between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005040631

Empirical Asset Pricing and Statistical Power in the Presence of Weak Risk Factors

Burnside, A. Craig - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007

The risk factors in many consumption-based asset pricing models display statistically weak correlation with the returns … factors (SDFs) when they are misspecified and the covariance matrix of the asset returns with the risk factors has less than … with SDFs specified in terms of demeaned risk factors improves the performance of GMM but the power to reject misspecified …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720102

Identification with Imperfect Instruments

Nevo, Aviv; Rosen, Adam Michael - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

Dealing with endogenous regressors is a central challenge of applied research. The standard solution is to use instrumental variables that are assumed to be uncorrelated with unobservables. We instead assume (i) the correlation between the instrument and the error term has the same sign as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720871

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