subjective choices in the setting of the prior. Moreover, it performs very well both in terms of out-of-sample forecasting …

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not …

Many recent papers have found that atheoretical forecasting methods using many predictors give better predictions for … synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook forecast. This dataset consists of a large number of variables, as observed at the time of … each Greenbook forecast since 1979. Thus, we can compare real-time large dataset predictions to both simple univariate …

model parameters. Regime-switching models incorporating international short rate and term spread information forecast better … correspond reasonably well with business cycles, at least in the US. This may explain why regime-switching models forecast …

Most of the future growth in energy use is forecast to come from the developing world. Understanding the likely pace … from the household analysis to aggregate energy forecast models using country-level panel data. Our results suggest that …