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Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy

Taylor, Alan M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, and after decades of relative neglect, the importance of the financial system …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011207908

Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Prasad, Eswar - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005777599

Global Macroeconomic and Financial Supervision: Where Next?

Goodhart, Charles - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

countries could lead to earlier policy reaction, and reduce the risk of crisis. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009395475

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Jorda, Oscar; Taylor, Alan M.; Schularick, Moritz - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks' balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969257

An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise

Mendoza, Enrique G.; Terrones, Marco E. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012

What are the stylized facts that characterize the dynamics of credit booms and the associated fluctuations in macro-economic aggregates? This paper answers this question by applying a method proposed in our earlier work for measuring and identifying credit booms to data for 61 emerging and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011133510

Betting the House

Jorda, Oscar; Taylor, Alan M.; Schularick, Moritz HP. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011106101

An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data

Mendoza, Enrique G.; Terrones, Marco E. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

This paper proposes a methodology for measuring credit booms and uses it to identify credit booms in emerging and industrial economies over the past four decades. In addition, we use event study methods to identify the key empirical regularities of credit booms in macroeconomic aggregates and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005723113

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences

Jorda, Oscar; Taylor, Alan M.; Schularick, Moritz HP. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

peak, but in a financial crisis recession the drop is typically 5 percent and it takes over 5 years to regain the previous …Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private …) in a normal recession and recovery real GDP per capita falls by 1.5 percent and takes only 2 years to regain its previous …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969435

When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises

Jorda, Oscar; Taylor, Alan M.; Schularick, Moritz HP. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts … of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output …; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009372454

Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons

Jorda, Oscar; Taylor, Alan M.; Schularick, Moritz - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010

Do external imbalances increase the risk of financial crises? In this paper, we study the experience of 14 developed countries over 140 years (1870-2008). We exploit our long-run dataset in a number of different ways. First, we apply new statistical tools to describe the temporal and spatial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008756455

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