Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However,...

Many recent papers have found that atheoretical forecasting methods using many predictors give better predictions for key macroeconomic variables than various small-model methods. The practical relevance of these results is open to question, however, because these papers generally use ex post...

Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However,...

In this paper, we quantify the changes in the relationship between international forces and many key US macroeconomic variables over the 1984-2005 period, and analyze changes in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. We do so by estimating a Factor-Augmented VAR on a large set of US and...

We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...

This paper considers a moments based non-linear estimator that is root-T consistent and uniformly asymptotically normal irrespective of the degree of persistence of the forcing process. These properties hold for linear autoregressive models, linear predictive regressions, as well as certain...

This paper studies the pruned state-space system for higher-order approximations to the solutions of DSGE models. For second- and third-order approximations, we derive the statistical properties of this system and provide closed-form expressions for first and second unconditional moments and...

Economists have long recognized that investors care differently about downside losses versus upside gains. Agents who place greater weight on downside risk demand additional compensation for holding stocks with high sensitivities to downside market movements. We show that the cross-section of...

We use Bayesian methods to estimate two models of post WWII U.S. inflation rates with drifting stochastic volatility and drifting coefficients. One model is univariate, the other a multivariate autoregression. We define the inflation gap as the deviation of inflation from a pure random walk...

This paper studies how stable over time are the so-called "structural parameters" of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. To answer this question, we estimate a medium-scale DSGE model with real and nominal rigidities using U.S. data. In our model, we allow for parameter...