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We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on … roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the … advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008619297
public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of "financial repression." Financial repression … interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks … rapid reduction in public debt/GDP ratios from the late 1940s to the 1970s. Low nominal interest rates help reduce debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008871143
We provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of eurozone countries from 2000 to 2012. We analyze private leverage, fiscal policy, labor costs and interest rates and we propose a strategy to separate the impact of credit cycles, excessive government spending, and sudden stops. We then ask...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951017
One of the most serious problems that a central bank in an emerging market economy can face, is the sudden reversal of capital inflows. Hoarding international reserves can be used to smooth the impact of such reversals, but these reserves are seldom sufficient and always expensive to hold. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084869
Emerging market economies, which have much of their growth ahead of them, run persistent current account deficits in order to smooth consumption intertemporally. The counterpart of these deficits is their dependence on capital inflows, which can suddenly stop. In this paper we develop and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718929
This paper examines the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real … the ten-year window following the crisis when compared to the decade that preceded it. Inflation is lower after 1929 and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534517
Even well managed emerging market economies are exposed to significant external risk, the bulk of which is financial. At a moment's notice, these economies may be required to reverse the capital inflows that have supported the preceding boom. While capital flows crises are sudden nonlinear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005089305
intra-period insurance markets. Lastly, we conjecture that our results would hold as well if the government could issue debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718190
Newly developed long historical time series on public debt, along with modern data on external debts, allow a deeper … analysis of the cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. The evidence confirms a strong link between banking crises …, private debt surges are a recurring antecedent to banking crises; governments quite contribute to this stage of the borrowing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008627121
the same time, private debt levels, particularly those of financial institutions and households, are in uncharted …, restructuring of public and private debts. A more subtle form of debt restructuring in the guise of "financial repression" (which … had its heyday during the tightly regulated Bretton Woods system) also importantly facilitated sharper and more rapid debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008855528