Pritchett, Lant; Summers, Lawrence H. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
substantially shift towards Asia and especially towards the Asian Giants, China and India. While such forecasts may pan out, there … are substantial reasons that China and India may grow much less rapidly than is currently anticipated. Most importantly … discontinuities account for a large fraction of the variation in growth rates. We suggest that salient characteristics of China …