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What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. In contrast, their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008628459
What drives countercyclical volatility? A large literature has documented that many economic variables are more disperse in recessions, but this could either occur because shocks get bigger or because firms respond more to shocks which are the same size. Existing evidence that the dispersion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950688
A growing theoretical literature argues that aggregate price flexibility and the inflation-output tradeoff faced by … constant inflation-output tradeoff in favor of a slope that increases with microeconomic volatility. In contrast, there is no … evidence that the inflation-output tradeoff varies with aggregate volatility or the business cycle more generally. Furthermore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729050
This paper characterizes the properties of various interest-rate rules in a basic forward-looking model. We compare simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations (called Wicksellian rules). We argue that by introducing an appropriate amount of history dependence in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008635937
This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values ( inertia ), demand shocks proxied …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005774538
innovations, and negatively correlated with inflation innovations. The disinflationary nature of news shocks is consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005027105
Does time-varying business volatility affect the price setting of firms and thus the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy? To address this question, we estimate from the firm-level micro data of the German IFO Business Climate Survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821970
stimulus mostly generates inflation rather than output growth. To do this, I construct price-setting models with "volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010785596
for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950792
We explore the importance of the nature of nominal price and wage adjustment for the design of effective monetary policy strategies, especially at the zero lower bound. Our analysis suggests that sticky-price and sticky-information models fit standard macroeconomic time series comparably well....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950908