for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights … Bayesian Model Averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show how a policymaker dealing with model uncertainty …

with a modest and protracted decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008Q4. The model does so even … though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy. …

The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U … favored by the Shadow would have lowered inflation with less impact on output growth and less variability in inflation or … outperformed the policies actually implemented by the Federal Reserve during the Great Inflation era. …

In recent years, central bankers throughout the world have advocated that monetary policy shift toward inflation … targeting. Recent actions in the U.S. serve to highlight the desire of the Federal Reserve to keep inflation both low and stable …, while downplaying the likely output and employment consequences. But control of inflation requires both that one be able to …

Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out …

produced the recession primarily were associated with financial disruptions and heightened uncertainty, although oil shocks …