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Paradox of Thrift Recessions
Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor; Huo, Zhen - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We build a variation of the neoclassical growth model in which both wealth shocks (in the sense of wealth destruction) and financial shocks to households generate recessions. The model features three mild departures from the standard model: (1) adjustment costs make it difficult to expand the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969369
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A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth: Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio
Gordon, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
Forecasts for the two or three years after mid-2014 have converged on growth rates of real GDP in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent, a major stepwise increase from realized growth of 2.1 percent between mid-2009 and mid-2014. However, these forecasts are based on the demand for goods and services....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950750
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Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy
Stiglitz, Joseph E. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
crisis? The paper presents a variety of hypotheses which provide answers to these questions, and argues that models based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951037
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Putting the 'System' in the International Monetary System
Bordo, Michael David; Redish, Angela - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
The international gold standard of the late nineteenth century has been described as a system of 'spontaneous order', capturing the idea that its architects at the time were fashioning domestic monetary systems which created a system of fixed exchange rates almost as a by-product. In contrast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951161
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The European Crisis in the Context of the History of Previous Financial Crises
Bordo, Michael David; James, Harold - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
major war or a serious financial crisis --a country could temporarily devalue its currency. The EMU has no such safety valve … countries. But not having the escape clause has meant that present day Greece and other peripheral European countries have … suffered much greater economic harm than did Argentina in the Baring Crisis of 1890. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951268
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The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery
Gordon, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
The Phillips Curve (hereafter PC) is widely viewed as dead, destined to the mortuary scrapyard of discarded economic ideas. The coroner's evidence consists of the small standard deviation of the core inflation rate in the past two decades despite substantial volatility of the unemployment rate,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951448
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AIG in Hindsight
McDonald, Robert L.; Paulson, Anna - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015
crisis. Two large bets on real estate made with funding that was vulnerable to bank-run like behavior on the part of funders …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011262909
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The Contribution of Schooling in Development Accounting: Results from a Nonparametric Upper Bound
Caselli, Francesco; Ciccone, Antonio - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
How much would output increase if underdeveloped economies were to increase their levels of schooling? We contribute to the development accounting literature by describing a non-parametric upper bound on the increase in output that can be generated by more schooling. The advantage of our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652860
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Current Account Adjustment: Some New Theory and Evidence
Wei, Shang-Jin; Ju, Jiandong - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007
This paper aims to provide a theory of current account adjustment that generalizes the textbook version of the intertemporal approach to current account and places domestic labor market institutions at the center stage. In general, in response to a shock, an economy adjusts through a combination...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710356
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The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth
Fischer, Stanley - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1993
Using a regression analog of growth accounting, I present cross- sectional and panel regressions showing that growth is negatively associated with inflation, large budget deficits, and distorted foreign exchange markets. Supplementary evidence suggests that the causation runs from macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718332