In the United States, the rate of price inflation falls in recessions. Turning this observation into a useful inflation … forecasting equation is difficult because of multiple sources of time variation in the inflation process, including changes in Fed … policy and credibility. We propose a tightly parameterized model in which the deviation of inflation from a stochastic trend …

Recently a market in options based on CPI inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses … quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these pdfs respond to news … empirical pricing kernels. The options-implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme inflation outcomes (either …

focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably robust to …

regression and GMM estimation of Euler equations obtained from the consumption-based capital asset pricing model with power …

A large part of the recent literature on program evaluation has focused on estimation of the average effect of the …