expectations are strong predictors of subsequent retirement decisions, we still find a retirement consumption decline for workers …

result, this class of overconfident agents changes its expectations too often, sometimes being excessively optimistic …

Although the theoretical importance of expectations in decision-making is well-known to economists, only a few … empirical papers investigate the impact of individual subjective expectations on economic outcomes. This paper examines the link … between expectations of future job losses and the subsequent impact that these expectations have on household consumption …

and trends of many of these data which summarize the experience and expectations of households during the recession. We … in spending were common especially following unemployment. On average expectations about stock market prices and housing … prices are pessimistic, particularly long-run expectations. Among workers, expectations about becoming unemployed have …

a gain show that people are more pessimistic than historical outcomes would suggest. Further, expectations of future … stock price increases apparently depend on old information, which would seem to be at odds with rational expectations in the … from the American Life Panel surveys from November 2008 to the present, we tracked high frequency changes in expectations …

This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge … about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. In a real business cycle … consumption and leisure. Output volatility is comparable with a rational expectations analysis with a standard deviation of …