This paper carefully outlines a method for the calculation of average marginal tax rates. The method is applied to Statistics of Income data for dividend and interest income earned by U.S. households from 1954 to 1980. To illustrate the effects these data can have inempirical work, the tax rates...

We examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships. We consider three possible roles: as information variables, as indicators of policy actions and as instruments in a policy rule. These...

This paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both Europe and the United States. The results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread, but it...

In this paper we rethink the NAIRU concept and examine whether it might have a useful role in monetary policy. We argue that it can, but success depends critically on defining NAIRU as a short-run concept and distinguishing it from a long-run concept like the natural rate of unemployment. We...

This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of subsequent U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated singly and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators....

Standard international economic models with life cycle/permanent income consumption behavior predict that international portfolio diversification leads to high bilateral consumption correlations. Thus international consumption correlations have been empirically estimated as a test of...