Ramey, Valerie Ann; Arezki, Rabah; Sheng, Liugang - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output–the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first...