Given a European derivative security with an arbitrary payoff function and a corresponding set of" underlying securities on which the derivative security is based, we solve the dynamic replication problem: find a" self-financing dynamic portfolio strategy involving only the underlying securities...

To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the...

This paper discusses the extent to which derivatives pose threats to firms and to the economy. After reviewing the derivatives markets and putting in perspective the various measures of the size of these markets, the paper shows who uses derivatives and why. The difficulties firms face in...

We propose a nonparametric method for estimating the pricing formula of a derivative asset using learning networks. Although not a substitute for the more traditional arbitrage-based pricing formulas, network pricing formulas may be more accurate and computationally more efficient alternatives...

An efficient method is developed for pricing American options on combination stochastic volatility/jump-diffusion processes when jump risk and volatility risk are systematic and nondiversifiable, thereby nesting two major option pricing models. The parameters implicit in PHLX-traded Deutschemark...

We propose an empirical implementation of the consumption-investment problem using the martingale representation alternative to dynamic programming. Our method is based on the direct observation of state prices from options data. This greatly simplifies the investor's task of specifying the...

In the last ten to fifteen years financial derivative securities have become an important, and controversial, product for commercial banks. The controversy concerns whether the size, complexity, and risks associated with these securities, the difficulties with accurately reporting timely...

We model the arrival of heterogeneous information in a financial market as a doubly-stochastic Poisson process (DSPP). A DSPP is a member of the family of Poisson processes in which the mean value of the process itself is governed by a stochastic mechanism. We explore the implications for...

Historically, commodity futures have had excess returns similar to those of equities. But what should we expect in the future? The usual risk factors are unable to explain the time-series variation in excess returns. In addition, our evidence suggests that commodity futures are an inconsistent,...

This paper builds on the landmark contribution of Glosten (1994) by treating the determination of limit order supply schedules as an exercise in asset pricing theory with the possible sizes of incoming market orders as the value-relevant states of nature, yielding an analogue of the Fundamental...