This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional … unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …

-price changes, and an index of equiproportional changes in all inflation rates, that we label "pure" inflation. The paper estimates … changes to fundamental economic shocks. We use the estimates of the pure inflation and aggregate relative-price components to … answer two questions. First, what share of the variability of inflation is associated with each component, and how are they …

their role in influencing the credibility of the monetary authority. We focus on measures of inflation expectations, the … mean reversion properties of inflation, and indicators of exchange rate risk. In addition we place some emphasis on whether …

the adoption of inflation targeting. However, the recent financial crisis and the call for central banks to focus more on …

shortening the duration of the crisis and a binding zero bound. Inflation should be front loaded. Fiscal-policy multipliers can …

and the inflation rate without error, then it is typically optimal to respond infinitely strongly to observed deviations … from the central bank's targets. If it observes inflation and the output gap with error, the central bank will temper its … terms of estimated output and inflation then it is optimal to respond infinitely strongly to estimated deviations from the …