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Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets
Manski, Charles - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2004
Participants in prediction markets such as the Iowa Electronic Markets trade all-or-nothing contracts that pay a dollar if and only if specified future events occur. Researchers engaged in empirical study of prediction markets have argued broadly that equilibrium prices of the contracts traded...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005049852
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Insider Trading, Stochastic Liquidity and Equilibrium Prices
Collin-Dufresne, Pierre; Fos, Vyacheslav - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
We extend Kyle's (1985) model of insider trading to the case where liquidity provided by noise traders follows a general stochastic process. Even though the level of noise trading volatility is observable, in equilibrium, measured price impact is stochastic. If noise trading volatility is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010581038
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The Size of the LGBT Population and the Magnitude of Anti-Gay Sentiment are Substantially Underestimated
Coffman, Katherine B.; Coffman, Lucas C.; Ericson, … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
identify sexuality-related norms and how they vary. We run an experiment on 2,516 U.S. participants. Participants were randomly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969234
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Field Experiments: A Bridge Between Lab and Naturally-Occurring Data
list, john - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007
field experiments can yield important insights into economic theory and provide useful guidance to policymakers. I also draw …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084551
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Sorting, Prices, and Social Preferences
Lazear, Edward; Malmendier, Ulrike; Weber, Roberto - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2006
What impact do social preferences have in market-type settings where individuals can sort in response to relative prices? We show that sorting behavior can distinguish between individuals who like to share and those who share but prefer to avoid the sharing environment altogether. In four...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084631
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Naturally Occurring Markets and Exogenous Laboratory Experiments: A Case Study of the Winner's Curse
Harrison, Glenn W.; list, john - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007
from the field context of the task that theory purports to explain. Using common value auction theory as our guide, we … identify naturally occurring settings in which one can test the theory. In our treatments the subjects are not picked at random … conclude that the theory predicts field behavior well when one is able to identify naturally occurring field counterparts to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005085377
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Last Minute Bidding and the Rules for Ending Second-Price Auctions: Theory and Evidence from a Natural Experiment on the Internet
Roth, Alvin; Ockenfels, Axel - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2000
have a fixed end time. A natural experiment is available because the auctions on Amazon, while operating under otherwise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710660
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Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)
Imbens, Guido - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
Two recent papers, Deaton (2009), and Heckman and Urzua (2009), argue against what they see as an excessive and inappropriate use of experimental and quasi-experimental methods in empirical work in economics in the last decade. They specifically question the increased use of instrumental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718427
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Naked Exclusion: An Experimental Study of Contracts with Externalities
Landeo, Claudia M.; Spier, Kathryn E. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to assess the ability of an incumbent seller to profitably …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005777709
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A Revealed Preference Approach to the Elicitation of Political Attitudes: Experimental Evidence on Anti-Americanism in Pakistan
Bursztyn, Leonardo; Callen, Michael; Ferman, Bruno; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
We develop an indirect, revealed preference method of eliciting attitudes and apply it in an experiment in Pakistan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010775960