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International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence

Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012

The last fifteen years have been marked by a dramatic boom-bust cycle in real estate prices, accompanied by economically large fluctuations in international capital flows. We argue that changes in international capital flows played, at most, a small role in driving house price movements in this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009397151

Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility

Caballero, Ricardo J; Krishnamurthy, Arvind - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

behind this crisis is the large demand for riskless assets from the rest of the world. In this paper we present a model to … downturn by concentrating risk onto its balance sheet. In addition to highlighting the role of capital flows in facilitating … concern with capital flows is in their speculative nature, in the U.S. the risk in capital inflows derives from the opposite …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005050251

The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap

Dooley, Michael; Garber, Peter M.; Folkerts-Landau, David - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2004

We argue that a chronic US current account deficit is an integral and sustainable feature of a successful international monetary system. The US deficit supplies international collateral to the periphery. International collateral in turn supports two-way trade in financial assets that liberates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005828411

Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises

Tornell, Aaron - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1999

The cross-country variation in the severity of the crisis was largely determined by three fundamentals: the strength of the banking system, the real appreciation, and the international liquidity of the country. We also find that the rule that links fundamentals to the crisis severity has been...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005828503

The Two Crises of International Economics

Dooley, Michael; Garber, Peter M.; Folkerts-Landau, David - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007

In this essay, we argue that key assumptions in international macroeconomic theory, though useful for understanding the economic relationships among developed countries, have been pushed beyond their competence to include relationships between developed economies and emerging markets. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005828567

Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America

Edwards, Sebastian - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

crises have been more costly in Latin America than in the rest of the world. I also find that the cost of external crises has …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005828606

Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators

Frankel, Jeffrey Alexander; Rose, Andrew - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1996

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005828736

A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets

Dooley, Michael - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1997

First generation models of speculative attacks show that apparently random speculative attacks on policy regimes can be fully consistent with rational and well-informed speculative behavior. Unfortunately, models driven by a conflict between exchange rate policy and other macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829082

When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion

Broner, Fernando; Gelos, R. Gaston; Reinhart, Carmen - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2004

past gains and losses on investors' risk aversion. The paper first presents a simple model examining how heterogeneous … changes in investors' risk aversion affects portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, the paper shows empirically that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829122

Disinflation and Fiscal Reform: A Neoclassical Perspective

Rigobon, Roberto - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2002

During the last two decades, many Latin American countries engaged in disinflation programs based on both exchange rate management and fiscal reforms. However, in most instances, part of the fiscal reform was delayed or not implemented completely, so the fiscal deficit increased and the program...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829394

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