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Network Structure and the Aggregation of Information: Theory and Evidence from Indonesia

Olken, Benjamin; Alatas, Vivi; Banerjee, Abhijit; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012

We use unique data from 600 Indonesian communities on what individuals know about the poverty status of others to study how network structure influences information aggregation. We develop a model of semi-Bayesian learning on networks, which we structurally estimate using within-village data....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010796687

Dynamics of Information Exchange in Endogenous Social Networks

Acemoglu, Daron; Bimpikis, Kostas; Ozdaglar, Asuman - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010

We develop a model of information exchange through communication and investigate its implications for information aggregation in large societies. An underlying state determines payoffs from different actions. Agents decide which others to form a costly communication link with incurring the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008674240

Household Debt: Facts, Puzzles, Theories, and Policies

Zinman, Jonathan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

Borrowing decisions affect most households, with large stakes and implications for subfields as varied as macroeconomics and industrial organization. I review theoretical and empirical work on household debt: its prevalence, level, growth, and composition, as well as various measures of consumer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951247

News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration

Blanchard, Olivier; L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Lorenzoni, Guido - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004991921

Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations

Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge … technology shock that is 20 percent smaller, and has substantially more volatility in investment and hours. Persistence in these … series is captured, unlike in standard models. Inherited from real business cycle theory, the benchmark model suffers a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005575689

Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets

Benabou, Roland - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

I develop a model of (individually rational) collective reality denial in groups, organizations and markets. Whether participants' tendencies toward wishful thinking reinforce or dampen each other is shown to hinge on a simple and novel mechanism. When an agent can expect to benefit from other's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005588916

News Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy

Lorenzoni, Guido - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007

socially desirable. I consider an environment with dispersed information and two aggregate shocks: a productivity shock and a … "news shock" which affects aggregate beliefs. Neither the central bank nor individual agents can distinguish the two shocks …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005778301

Optimal Monetary Policy with Informational Frictions

Angeletos, George-Marios; La'O, Jennifer - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

We study optimal monetary policy in an environment in which firms' pricing and production decisions are subject to informational frictions. Our framework accommodates multiple formalizations of these frictions, including dispersed private information, sticky information, and certain forms of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359894

Decentralization, Communication, and the Origins of Fluctuations

Angeletos, George-Marios; La'O, Jennifer - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

We consider a class of convex, competitive, neoclassical economies in which agents are rational; the equilibrium is unique; there is no room for randomization devices; and there are no shocks to preferences, technologies, endowments, or other fundamentals. In short, we rule out every known source...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009021949

Empirics of Strategic Interdependence: The Case of the Racial Tipping Point

Easterly, William - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

The Schelling model of a "tipping point" in racial segregation, in which whites flee a neighborhood once a threshold of nonwhites is reached, is a canonical model of strategic interdependence. The idea of "tipping" explaining segregation is widely accepted in the academic literature and popular...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004980318