for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights … environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

with a modest and protracted decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008Q4. The model does so even … though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy. …

during the postwar period using VAR forecast errors and frequency domain filters. We find that there are several patterns of … and output variables. In addition, we propose a more efficient method to calculate the covariances of VAR forecast errors …

. Unfortunately, inflation is very difficult to forecast at even very near horizons. This is true because the relationship of …In recent years, central bankers throughout the world have advocated that monetary policy shift toward inflation … targeting. Recent actions in the U.S. serve to highlight the desire of the Federal Reserve to keep inflation both low and stable …

Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out …

The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U … favored by the Shadow would have lowered inflation with less impact on output growth and less variability in inflation or … outperformed the policies actually implemented by the Federal Reserve during the Great Inflation era. …