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Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Impacts from Possible Mega Trade Deals
Whalley, John; Li, Chunding; Wang, Jing - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
This paper explores the potential impacts on both China and other major countries of possible mega trade deals. These …-participation countries will lose. If non-tariff barriers are reduced more, the impacts will be larger. All effects to China on welfare, trade …, export and import are positive. Comparatively China-TPP and RCEP will yield the highest welfare outcomes for the US in our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951424
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China and the TPP: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved
Whalley, John; Li, Chunding - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
other pacific countries are included, China is notable for its exclusion from the process thus far. This paper uses … numerical simulation methods to assess the potential effects of a TPP agreement on China and the other participating countries …. Simulation results reveal that China will be hurt by TPP initiatives, but the negative effects are relatively small given the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271394
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Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound
Chinn, Menzie; Zhang, Yi - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015
Relying upon a standard New Keynesian DSGE, we propose an explanation for two empirical findings in the international finance literature. First, the unbiasedness hypothesis – the proposition that expost exchange rate depreciation matches interest differentials – is rejected much more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276433
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Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? A Scenario Analysis
Faruqee, Hamid; Laxton, Douglas; Pesenti, Paolo A.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2006
a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy encompassing four regional blocs. Simulation exercises are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005085213
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Further Comments on The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth
Fogel, Robert W. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
China during the four decades between 2000 and 2040. The first concerns the source of the factors which make it likely that … China will continue to grow at a high rate for another generation. The paper argues that this growth will be the result of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008628329
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The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting
Rogoff, Kenneth S; Stavrakeva, Vania - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710862
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Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts
Devereux, Michael B.; Smith, Gregor W.; Yetman, James - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciation across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005713950
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Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
Chinn, Menzie; Moore, Michael John - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
We propose an exchange rate model which is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans-Lyons microstructure approach. It argues that the failure of the monetary model is principally due to private preference shocks which render the demand for money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829342
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Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations
Fogel, Robert W. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007
significant constraints (both political and economic) will keep it from reaching China's levels. The projected decline of the EU15 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829877
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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?
Rogoff, Kenneth S; Rossi, Barbara; Chen, Yu-Chin - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005830811