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The great contraction of 2008 pushed the U.S. economy into a protracted liquidity trap (i.e., a long period with zero nominal interest rates and inflationary expectations below target). In addition, the recovery was jobless (i.e., output growth recovered but unemployment lingered). This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969402
shortening the duration of the crisis and a binding zero bound. Inflation should be front loaded. Fiscal-policy multipliers can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950697
We explore the importance of the nature of nominal price and wage adjustment for the design of effective monetary policy strategies, especially at the zero lower bound. Our analysis suggests that sticky-price and sticky-information models fit standard macroeconomic time series comparably well....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950908
We propose an overlapping generations New Keynesian model in which a permanent (or very persistent) slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full employment. The trigger for the slump is a deleveraging shock, which creates an oversupply of savings. Other forces that work in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950933
and the inflation rate without error, then it is typically optimal to respond infinitely strongly to observed deviations … from the central bank's targets. If it observes inflation and the output gap with error, the central bank will temper its … terms of estimated output and inflation then it is optimal to respond infinitely strongly to estimated deviations from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951201
ideas. The coroner's evidence consists of the small standard deviation of the core inflation rate in the past two decades … despite substantial volatility of the unemployment rate, and in particular the common tendency of PC inflation equations to … predict ever greater amounts of negative inflation (i.e., deflation) over the years of labor-market slack since 2008 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951448
We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized empirically accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy during the zero-lower-bound period. Announcing fiscal austerity is detrimental in the short run, but it preserves macroeconomic stability. On the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269066
We study a class of infinite-horizon nonlinear dynamic economic models in which preferences, technology and laws of motion for exogenous variables can change over time either deterministically or stochastically, according to a Markov process with time-varying transition probabilities, or both....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276421
interest on reserves. While their effects on output and inflation are small, these policies require major adjustments in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011262796
for the unemployment-inflation tradeoff and for the conduct of monetary policy.<br><br>We proceed in two steps. We first … setting by firms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discuss how it is influenced by the presence … of labor market frictions and real wage rigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248798