This paper shows that large economic downturns may result from the propagation of microeconomic shocks over the input-output linkages across different firms or sectors within the economy. Building on the framework of Acemoglu et al. (2012), we argue that the economy's input-output structure can...

A statistical agency faces several challenges in building Productivity Accounts. What started out as a request for simple ratios of output to employment has moved to a demand for multifactor (total factor) productivity measures that take into account both labor and capital inputs, the...

We provide a general framework for the study of cascade effects created by interconnections between sectors, firms or financial institutions. Focusing on a multi sector economy linked through a supply network, we show how structural properties of the supply network determine both whether...

The integration of the annual I-O accounts with the GDP-by-industry accounts is the most recent in a series of improvements to the industry accounts provided by the BEA in recent years. BEA prepares two sets of national industry accounts: The I-O accounts, which consist of the benchmark I-O...

We document that even though the normal distribution is a good approximation to the nature of aggregate fluctuations, it severely underpredicts the frequency of large economic downturns. We then provide a model that can explain these facts simultaneously. Our model show that the propagation of...

The adoption and diffusion of inputs in the production network is at the heart of technological progress. What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted by innovators? We examine the evolution of input linkages from a network perspective, starting from a stylized...

In this paper, we propose a method for finding policy function improvements for a single agent in high-dimensional Markov dynamic optimization problems, focusing in particular on dynamic games. Our approach combines ideas from literatures in Machine Learning and the econometric analysis of games...

The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...

A wave of recent research has studied the predictability of foreign currency returns. A wide variety of forecasting structures have been proposed, including signals such as carry, value, momentum, and the forward curve. Some of these have been explored individually, and others have been used in...

The investment decisions of small‐scale farmers in developing countries are conditioned by their financial environment. Binding credit market constraints and incomplete insurance can reduce investment in activities with high expected profits. We conducted several experiments in northern Ghana...