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We provide empirical support for the conventional wisdom that there are times when optimistic investors tend to build their hopes into castles in the air, and pay a large premium over intrinsic value for stocks of firms in the early stages of their life cycles with perceived growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951370
to the fact that both bond and equity yields commove strongly and positively with expected inflation. While inflation … commoves with nominal bond yields for well-known reasons, the positive correlation between expected inflation and equity yields … has long puzzled economists. We show that the effect is consistent with modern asset pricing theory incorporating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025656
Stock and Treasury bond comovement, volatilities, and their relations to their price valuations and fundamentals change …, thereby affecting the direction of stock/bond comovement. The learning dynamics generate strong non-linearities between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008635936
We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008776834
characterization of flight-to-safety (FTS) episodes. Using only data on bond and stock returns, we identify and characterize flight to … safety episodes for 23 countries. On average, FTS days comprise less than 5% of the sample, and bond returns exceed equity … in FTS episodes. Liquidity deteriorates on FTS days both in the bond and equity markets. Both economic growth and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010696634
We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovements and its time variation using a dynamic factor model. We … stock and bond return correlations, but that other factors, especially liquidity proxies, play a more important role. The … macro factors are still important in fitting bond return volatility; whereas the "variance premium" is critical in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005037656
, including the level of policy rates at the time of the release, and risk conditions: government bond yields increase in response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821854
We present a model in which some investors are prohibited from using leverage and other investors' leverage is limited by margin requirements. The former investors bid up high-beta assets while the latter agents trade to profit from this, but must de-lever when they hit their margin constraints....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765617
We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads sector from the beginning of the 1870s until the beginning of the year 2013 from primary sources. To infer about mispricings in the sector markets over more than a century, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010885301
The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008628426