Using implicit expected utility theory, a money metric of utility derived from playing a lottery game is developed. Output of the lottery sector can be defined as the difference in utility with and without the game. Using a kinked parametric functional form, outputs of the Canadian Lotto 6/49...

Explanations of procyclical productivity play a key role in a variety of business-cycle models. Most of these models, however, explain this procyclicality within a representative-firm paradigm. This procedure is misleading. We decompose aggregate productivity changes into several terms, each of...

This paper investigates the use of high-frequency scanner data to construct price indexes. In the presence of inventory behavior, purchases and consumption by individuals differ over time. Cost-of-living indexes can still be constructed using data on purchases. For weekly data on canned tuna,...

This paper extends a New Keynesian model to include roles for currency and deposits as competing sources of liquidity services demanded by households. It shows that, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the Barnett critique applies: While a Divisia aggregate of monetary services tracks the...

We develop and estimate a unified model of house prices, loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), and trade and foreclosure behavior. House prices are only observed for traded properties, and trades are endogenous, creating sample-selection problems for traditional estimators. We develop a Bayesian...

In this paper, we reevaluate the evidence of seasonality in prices which we find to be substantially greater than previous research has indicated. That is, seasonal price movements have become more prominent in the relatively stable inflation environment that has prevailed since 1982. One main...

We study asset allocation when the conditional moments of returns are partly predictable. Rather than first model the return distribution and subsequently characterize the portfolio choice, we determine directly the dependence of the optimal portfolio weights on the predictive variables. We...

The purpose of the paper is to measure the potential bias in the U.S. import price index due to the appearance of new product varieties, or new foreign suppliers, and determine the effect of this bias on the estimated income elasticity of import demand. Existing import price indexes are based on...

The paper is an extensive review of chapter 16 in the System of National Accounts, 1993 written by Peter Hill. The basic principles for measuring price and quantity change in the National Accounts are explained. The paper also presents some new material on the consistency of superlative indexes...

Four sources of bias in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) have been identified. The most discussed is substitution bias, which creates a second order bias in the CPI. Three other changes besides prices changes create first order effects on a correctly measured cost of living index (COLI). (1)...